| Title: | Using a GIS-Based Build-Out Analysis to Predict Water Quality Impacts to a Water Supply Reservoir |
| Authors: | Sandy Prisloe, Michael Dietz, Cary Chadwick |
| Date/Time | Wednesday, November 7 ~ 8:45 am - 10:15 am |
| Abstract: | Land development within a watershed can have a direct impact on the water quality of receiving waters. Understanding potential changes and the relationships to existing vs. future development can be a valuable tool to help direct watershed protection actions. The University of Connecticut’s Center for Land Use Education and Research assisted the South Central Connecticut Regional Water Authority (SCCRWA) by estimating changes in total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations and Secchi disk depth that would occur as the result of a hypothetical build-out in a watershed of one of SCCRWA's reservoir systems. A mass balance model was developed using a dynamic systems modeling software (Stella®) to predict future reservoir water quality. An ArcMap-based build-out analysis was done using the CommunityViz Scenario360 extension. The build-out determined the area and location of vacant and buildable land and calculated the number of new homes and non-residential buildings that could be constructed. The developed area data served as input to the water quality model and estimates were generated to show future water quality changes. Results of the analysis will be used by SCCRWA to guide the development of watershed protection strategies. |
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